Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (4)

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Thank you Flores & MIN for making me look like a genius. As predicted, Flores’ exotic “D” @ the line is impossible to decipher for QBs new to his scheme. Stroud did not look himself & despite the predicted pressure on Darnold, the MIN “O” took everything HOU’s “D” allowed to score slowly but consistently. CAR & Dalton also made me look like a genius, w/another throw-away QB blowing up LAV. Teaser also hit fairly easy. Sadly the same issues that plagued Skylar Thompson in his rookie yr are still here. He simply cannot get his team lined up in time nor set things in motion pre-snap, leading to confusion or penalties before MIA can get the ball hiked. And once the ball is snapped, he makes poor reads & takes too much time to throw. The gentleman who was commenting on my thread last wk was rt. The organization should’ve prioritized getting a quality backup which there were a lot, I found out. Whether it’s McDaniel’s hubris or Grier’s incompetence, personnel decisions are rearing its ugly head w/Tua out. It’s embarrassing. What’s even more embarrassing is JAX. I cannot believe the performance they put on display on MNF for the world to see. I’ve never had confidence in Lawrence, so his misthrows against a stout BUF “D” wasn’t surprising. But JAX’s “D” allowing Cook to run wild & simple WR crossing patterns to be WIDE open is mindboggling. That was a high school football team playing Monday vs a SB contender.

Regular Season POW 1-2, Teasers 2-2, GOY 0-0, Overall 5-7-3

PIT -2
is an improbable 3-0 to start the season & I am concerned that the Tomlin head-scratching crap-the-bed gm is coming, but not this wk. W/a full offseason for coaches to watch Anthony Richardson tape, it seems as though he’s not going to be the superstar QB so many pundits were tabbing him to be this yr. I was very unimpressed w/his accuracy & decision-making last yr & in college, so I chalked up all the hype to his running ability, similar to Lamar when he 1st started. But, rehabbing from his injury to his throwing shoulder must’ve not allowed him to hone his passing @ all because his misses are atrocious. Enter the #1 “D” Steelers led by All-World TJ Watt. I can’t see Richardson having a revelation against this hungry “D” that doesn’t take their foot off the pedal. And it’s definitely not just pressure on the QB, PIT is also tied for #2 against the run giving up a paltry 71 rypg. IND was able to take the ball (somewhat) out of Richardson’s hands by force-feeding JT 23x for 110 yds & 2 TDs in their only win vs lowly CHI. I believe PIT takes that away, which leaves Richardson to carry the “O” & he’s the 2nd worst QB in rating (only ahead of Bryce Young), w/3 TDs to 6 INTs, completing just 49% of his passes (worse than Young). In case you’re wondering about his rushing #’s he’s avg 39 rypg & has just 1 TD on the ground. Oppositely, Justin Fields is playing efficiently w/only 1 INT to 2 TDs (1 rushing) & toting a 95 rating which is 12th in the league. PIT will be leaning on their own run gm, which will be w/out Jaylen Warren, however Cordarrelle Patterson came in late vs LAC to carry the rock 4x for 33 yds to help close the gm. Another key stat here is time of possession where PIT is #2 in the NFL, while IND is dead last. IND’s “D” was already thin in their secondary & now team leader Kenny Moore is out, so Pickens & Freiermuth may have a good gm. IND will also be w/out 2 of their good pass rushers in Paye & Lewis. And against that fearsome PIT dline, IND’s C & RT could be out (didn’t practice Fri). Could be precautionary, but if they’re not @ full health, that only makes facing Watt & co more challenging.

PIT 23
IND 13
5 Units


GL to all & comments are most welcome.
 

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Honorable Mentions:

2 Units MIN +3 (bought ½):
This was going to be my POW, but LaFluer & his staff are doing a tremendous job w/Willis @ QB. Indeed IND & TEN aren’t quite great bars to set but they both have fairly good “D”s. What changes here is again that Flores “D”. It is so confusing even to veteran QBs & olines & Willis w/his young oline that hasn’t quite gelled yet are going to have their hands full. That front-7 is extremely smart & fly to the ball. MIN may have a hard time scoring themselves because GB’s “D” is also smart but stud CB Alexander is a GTD & didn’t practice this wk. Aaron Jones returns to GB where he’ll be motivated to take that Lambeau leap in rival colors. May add another Unit if Love is inactive.

1 Unit LAR +3: This line is so scary & is the main reason why this isn’t a GOY for me. How on Earth is Caleb Williams & the Bearsch giving a full FG to Stafford & McVay? Perhaps their signature win vs div rival SF has them patting themselves on the back, but Stafford is comfortable playing in CHI w/his time in DET & Kyren Williams will help keep some pressure off him despite being thin on the oline & WR. CHI will score against LA’s porous secondary but I feel Staff pulls off the late gm heroics again if they happen to get down early. If CHI gets down 1st, then there’s no comeback.

1 Unit WAS +3 ½: How can you not like this kid Daniels? What a fun gm to watch last MNF vs CIN where he completed 21/23 passes for 2 TDs & that absolute dime to Scary Terry to end the gm in the face of pressure. WAS is the worst in opposing passer rating, but ARI is only 2 teams away from that, so I expect a shootout between Murray & Daniels.

2 Unit Wormy Teaser

LAR +16
WAS/ARI Over 36
SF +2 ½
DET +9 ½
 

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Trend against Rams:
Teams coming off a 14+ pt comeback in their previous game are 51-68 SU (43%) and 49-70-1 ATS (41.2%), including 70-49-1 (59%) to the under in their next game since 2016.

When that team came back from 14+ down, they are 24-49 SU, 30-44 ATS when playing on the road in their next game over the last decade.
 

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